Ensemble forecast from ECMWF#
An ensemble weather forecast is a set of forecasts that present the range of future weather possibilities. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions and with slightly perturbed weather models. These variations represent the inevitable uncertainty in the initial conditions and approximations in the models. They produce a range of possible weather conditions.
Temporal and spatial resolution#
The forecast provides data for the next 7 days with a 24h time step.
The spatial resolution is 0.2º x 0.2º lat/long.
Update frequency#
The data is updated twice a day following the model runs:
00h UTC.
12h UTC.
Available variables#
The following variables are available on the platform:
Probability of Precipitation of at least 1/5/10/20 mm#
This variable gives the probability (in %) that total precipitation will be 1/5/10/20 mm or above. It is derived from the range of possible outcomes as predicted by the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system. A higher probability indicates that more ensemble members are predicting total precipitation of 1/5/10/20 mm or above.
Currently, the platform displays a different layer for each of the available thresholds: * Precipitation of at least 1mm * Precipitation of at least 5mm * Precipitation of at least 10mm * Precipitation of at least 20mm
The units used are %.
Probability of Wind speed of at least 10/15 m/s#
This variable gives the probability (in %) that the 10 m wind speed will be 10/15 m/s or above. It is derived from the range of possible outcomes as predicted by the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system. A higher probability indicates that more ensemble members are predicting a 10 m wind speed of 10/15 m/s or above.
10 metre wind speed is the horizontal speed of the wind, or movement of air, at a height of ten metres above the surface of the Earth.
Currently, the platform displays a different layer for each of the available thresholds: * Wind speed of at least 10 m/s (Displayed as 36 km/h) * Wind speed of at least 15 m/s (Displayed as 54 km/h)
The units used are %.
Visualization#
Useful links#
Data sources#
Data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used.