Simulation of fire spread (PROPAGATOR)#
PROPAGATOR is a stochastic cellular automaton model for forest fire spread simulation, conceived as a rapid method for fire risk assessment. The model uses high-resolution information such as topography and vegetation cover considering different types of vegetation. Input parameters are wind speed and direction and the ignition point. Dead fine fuel moisture content and firebreaks—fire fighting strategies can also be considered. The fire spread probability depends on vegetation type, slope, wind direction and speed, and fuel moisture content. The fire-propagation speed is determined through the adoption of a Rate of Spread model. PROPAGATOR simulates independent realizations of one stochastic fire propagation process, and at each time-step gives as output a map representing the probability of each cell of the domain to be affected by the fire. These probabilities are obtained computing the relative frequency of ignition of each cell.
Available information#
PROPAGATOR is executed on demand and ARGOS contains an specific interface to introduce input parameters: ignition point, wind speed and direction. Several time steps can be introduced using the “+” button and specifying increasing lead time.
The available information as the Burnt Area at final timestep with associated probabilities of 90%, 75%, 50%.
Visualization#
Useful links#
PROPAGATOR at CIMA Research Foundation page.
References#
Trucchia, A.; D’Andrea, M.; Baghino, F.; Fiorucci, P.; Ferraris, L.; Negro, D.; Gollini, A.; Severino, M. PROPAGATOR: An Operational Cellular-Automata Based Wildfire Simulator. Fire 2020, 3, 26. Link